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Archive: January 2008
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Exclusive
Black-Market Auto Fuel Spikes While Other Commodities Hold Steady
01/21/2008 1:44 PM ET
Auto fuel (ID/liter)
12-Jan 19-Jan Percent change
Baghdad al-Jadida 800 900 12.5%
Sadr City 600 800 33.3%
Karrada 800 1000 25.0%
Kadhimiya 800 900 12.5%
Mansour 800 1000 25.0%
Ghazaliya 800 900 12.5%
Sha'b 700 900 28.6%
Hay al-'Amil 800 900 12.5%
Harthiya 800 900 12.5%

Black-market prices for auto fuel are the big story in this week's exclusive report on prices in the Iraqi capital. Slogger sources in each of nine neighborhoods across the city report steep increases in the street price of auto fuel, a trend made all the more striking by the reported stability in other prices around Baghdad, as the tables below show.

While black-market prices for cooking gas, another necessary fuel, remain unchanged, along with prices for cigarettes and two kinds of staple breads, fuel prices jumped by as much as 33 percent in Sadr City, 28.6 percent in Sha'b, and 25 percent in Mansour and Karrada. Five other districts report a 12.5 percent increase in the street prices for auto fuel.

Although Sadr City saw the highest spike in rates, the impoverished eastern Baghdad district retains the title for lowest fuel prices in the capital at 800 ID/liter.

Auto fuel prices throughout the capital are well above the official price of 400 ID/liter, a price at which fuel is seldom available, forcing most Baghdadis to turn to black-market operations for their fuel needs.

For all of IraqSlogger's exclusive price check coverage click here.

Marlboros (ID/carton)

12-Jan 19-Jan
Baghdad al-Jadida 17000 17000
Sadr City 17000 17000
Karrada 18500 18500
Kadhimiya 18000 18000
Mansour 18000 18000
Ghazaliya 18000 18000
Sha'b 18000 18000
Hay al-'Amil 18000 18000
Harthiya 18000 18000

Cooking gas (ID/cylinder)

12-Jan 19-Jan
Baghdad al-Jadida 20000 20000
Sadr City 18000 18000
Karrada 20000 20000
Kadhimiya 22000 22000
Mansour 21000 21000
Ghazaliya 20000 20000
Sha'b 23000 23000
Hay al-'Amil 24000 24000
Harthiya 24000 24000

Khubuz bread (ID/piece)

12-Jan 19-Jan
Baghdad al-Jadida 175 175
Sadr City 100 100
Karrada 175 175
Kadhimiya 175 175
Mansour 175 175
Ghazaliya 200 200
Sha'b 150 150
Hay al-'Amil 175 175
Harthiya 175 175

Samoun bread (ID/piece)

12-Jan 19-Jan
Baghdad al-Jadida 100 100
Sadr City 100 100
Karrada 125 125
Kadhimiya 100 100
Mansour 125 125
Ghazaliya 100 100
Sha'b 100 100
Hay al-'Amil 100 100
Harthiya 100 100
Exclusive
No Improvement in Power Supply in over a Month, Sources Say
01/15/2008 12:45 PM ET
IraqSlogger.com.

As the images below show, IraqSlogger's sources report no improvement in the average daily electricity supply in the Iraqi capital for the week ending January 12.

In fact, Slogger sources, who report the estimated average daily supply across nine districts in the capital on a weekly basis, have not observed a substantial improvement in the delivery of electricity in Baghdad since early December.

The chart below plots the data reported to IraqSlogger since the beginning of December.

Click here for all of IraqSlogger's exclusive electricity watch coverage, and see the map below for the relative location of each of the nine Baghdad districts.

Click to enlarge.
IraqSlogger.com.
Click to enlarge.

Click to enlarge. Composite satellite image plots average estimated daily power supply in Baghdad districts for week ending Jan. 12.
Google Earth image/IraqSlogger.com.
Click to enlarge. Composite satellite image plots average estimated daily power supply in Baghdad districts for week ending Jan. 12.

Exclusive
Black-Market Gas Prices Hit a New Low after Summer Highs; Cigs Spike in Capital
01/14/2008 1:51 PM ET
Auto fuel (ID/liter)
5-Jan 12-Jan Percent change
Baghdad al-Jadida 900 800 -11.1%
Sadr City 600 600
Karrada 800 800
Kadhimiya 800 800
Mansour 900 800 -11.1%
Ghazaliya 800 800
Sha'b 800 700 -12.5%
Hay al-'Amil 800 800
Harthiya 900 800 -11.1%

After several weeks of stable prices in Baghdad, IraqSlogger sources across nine disparate neighborhoods report new trends in prices in several key commodities in the capital, including the black-market price of two key fuels in some neighborhoods.

For the week ending January 12, street prices for auto fuel dropped sharply in four districts, as shown in the table above, while the price of cooking gas on the black market dropped by 9.1% in Baghdad al-Jadida, as compared to last week's report.

Black-market prices for both of the petroleum derivatives remain well above the state-set prices of 400 ID/liter for gasoline and 4000 ID/cylinder for cooking gas. The commodities are often unavailable at these prices in official markets, forcing Baghdad consumers to turn to illicit operations for their energy needs.

This week's update marks the first time since fuel prices spiked in spring and summer of 2007 that auto fuel prices in all nine districts is at or below 800 ID/liter.

While fuel prices dropped in some areas, prices for a carton of Marlboro cigarettes jumped in all nine districts, by as much as over 12 percent in Sha'b, al-'Amil, Harthiya, and Karrada. The jump in cigarette prices in other districts ranges from 5.9 percent in Mansour and Ghazaliya to 9.1 percent in Kadhimiya.

Meanwhile, the price of two staple breads, khubuz and samoun, remained stable, suggesting that the hike in cigarette prices is not due to a generalized inflation.

Click here for all of IraqSlogger's exclusive price check coverage, and see a map of the relative location of the nine districts here.

Marlboros (ID/carton)

5-Jan 12-Jan Percent change
Baghdad al-Jadida 16000 17000 6.3%
Sadr City 16000 17000 6.3%
Karrada 16500 18500 12.1%
Kadhimiya 16500 18000 9.1%
Mansour 17000 18000 5.9%
Ghazaliya 17000 18000 5.9%
Sha'b 16000 18000 12.5%
Hay al-'Amil 16000 18000 12.5%
Harthiya 16000 18000 12.5%

Cooking gas (ID/cylinder)

5-Jan 12-Jan Percent change
Baghdad al-Jadida 22000 20000 -9.1%
Sadr City 18000 18000
Karrada 20000 20000
Kadhimiya 22000 22000
Mansour 21000 21000
Ghazaliya 20000 20000
Sha'b 23000 23000
Hay al-'Amil 24000 24000
Harthiya 24000 24000

Khubuz bread (ID/piece)

5-Jan 12-Jan
Baghdad al-Jadida 175 175
Sadr City 100 100
Karrada 175 175
Kadhimiya 175 175
Mansour 175 175
Ghazaliya 200 200
Sha'b 150 150
Hay al-'Amil 175 175
Harthiya 175 175

Samoun bread (ID/piece)

5-Jan 12-Jan
Baghdad al-Jadida 100 100
Sadr City 100 100
Karrada 125 125
Kadhimiya 100 100
Mansour 125 125
Ghazaliya 100 100
Sha'b 100 100
Hay al-'Amil 100 100
Harthiya 100 100
Exclusive
Local Sources See No Change in Power Supply for First Week of 2008
01/08/2008 1:40 PM ET
Click to enlarge. Estimated average daily supply of electrical current in nine Baghdad neighborhoods for week ending Jan. 5.
Google Earth Image/IraqSlogger.com.
Click to enlarge. Estimated average daily supply of electrical current in nine Baghdad neighborhoods for week ending Jan. 5.

IraqSlogger sources in nine disparate Baghdad neighborhoods report no change in the supply of electricity to homes over the last week, when compared to the last update in late December.

The image above plots the average estimated availability of the power current to homes in the nine districts where Slogger sources track electricity provision each week.

Note that there was no report for the last week of December due to the Muslim and Christian holidays.

Click here for all of IraqSlogger's exclusive data.

Exclusive
Black-Market Fuels Stable for the First Update of the New Year
01/07/2008 2:52 PM ET
Marlboros (ID/carton)

22-Dec 5-Jan
Baghdad al-Jadida 16000 16000
Sadr City 16000 16000
Karrada 16500 16500
Kadhimiya 16500 16500
Mansour 17000 17000
Ghazaliya 17000 17000
Sha'b 16000 16000
Hay al-'Amil 16000 16000
Harthiya 16000 16000

Prices in two key black-market fuels were unchanged in the first week of the year as reported by Slogger sources in nine different Baghdad neighborhoods.

As the tables show, for the week ending January 5, on-the-street prices of gasoline, and of cooking fuel, used in food preparation, both remain considerably higher than state-set prices, but do not manifest the price volatility that these two commodities often experienced last year. In fact, in the last report, for the week ending December 22, five of the nine districts where Slogger tracks its data each week showed prices falling by double digits in one or both of the two key fuels.

The official price of gasoline is set by the state at 400 Iraqi dinars (ID) per liter, and the price of cooking fuel is set at 4,000 ID per refillable canister. However, these fuels are often unavailable at state-sanctioned retailers at these rates, forcing Iraqis to turn to the black markets to meet their fuel needs.

Prices for cigarettes and two kinds of staple breads, khubuz and samoun, also remain unchanged since the last report, as show below.

Note that there was no Baghdad prices reporting for the week ending December 29 due to the Muslim and Christian holidays. For all of IraqSlogger's exclusive price check reporting, click here.

Auto fuel (ID/liter)

22-Dec 5-Jan
Baghdad al-Jadida 900 900
Sadr City 600 600
Karrada 800 800
Kadhimiya 800 800
Mansour 900 900
Ghazaliya 800 800
Sha'b 800 800
Hay al-'Amil 800 800
Harthiya 900 900

Cooking gas (ID/cylinder)

22-Dec 5-Jan
Baghdad al-Jadida 22000 22000
Sadr City 18000 18000
Karrada 20000 20000
Kadhimiya 22000 22000
Mansour 21000 21000
Ghazaliya 20000 20000
Sha'b 23000 23000
Hay al-'Amil 24000 24000
Harthiya 24000 24000

Khubuz bread (ID/piece)

15-Dec 22-Dec
Baghdad al-Jadida 175 175
Sadr City 100 100
Karrada 175 175
Kadhimiya 175 175
Mansour 175 175
Ghazaliya 200 200
Sha'b 150 150
Hay al-'Amil 175 175
Harthiya 175 175

Samoun bread (ID/piece)

22-Dec 5-Jan
Baghdad al-Jadida 100 100
Sadr City 100 100
Karrada 125 125
Kadhimiya 100 100
Mansour 125 125
Ghazaliya 100 100
Sha'b 100 100
Hay al-'Amil 100 100
Harthiya 100 100
New Report
Death Rate High, but Down from 2006, Body Count Figures Say
01/02/2008 7:02 PM ET
Year Civilians Killed
2003 10,077 – 12,010
2004 9,741 – 10,573
2005 13,071 – 14,324
2006 25,699 – 27,519
2007 22,586 – 24,159
Total 2003-07 81,174–88,585

Iraq Body Count, which monitors Iraqi civilian casualties on the basis of media reports, has released its preliminary tally for 2007 Iraqi civilian deaths.

According to IBC's figures, 2007 was the second most deadly year for Iraqi civilians since the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq, with the figure for the year running between a minimum of 22,586 to a maximum of 24,159.

Within Iraq, IBC found a general downward trend from month to month in civilian deaths in Baghdad, while civilian deaths climbed each month for the first eight months of the year outside the capital. After September, a sharp drop is seen in the casualty count outside of Baghdad, but IBC notes that after March 2007 civilian deaths outside the capital outnumbered those in Baghdad, for the first time since 2003.

While IBC identifies several interesting aspects of the data in its full discussion of the data, the

Measuring deaths from violence per capita, Diyala province was the most deadly in 2007, with 255 reported civilian deaths from violence per 100,000 inhabitants. The five highest per-capita civilian violent death rates are as follows, according to IBC.

  1. Diyala, at 255 violent civilian deaths per 100,000 inhabitants (up 29% from 197/100k in 2006)
  2. Baghdad, at 164/100k (down 39% from 267/100k)
  3. Anbar, at 122/100k (up 61% from 76/100k)
  4. Salah al-Din, at 120/100k (up 26% from 95/100k)
  5. Ninewa, at 100/100k (up 143% from 41/100k)

Click here for the full report.

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